Iran stands at a pivotal moment, with underlying tensions and instability masked by a surface-level appearance of stability. Following the suppression of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement and a smooth transition to a new president after Ebrahim Raisi’s death, Iran continues to assert its influence on the international stage. However, domestically, the country is grappling with severe socio-economic issues, rampant corruption, and a growing legitimacy crisis, evidenced by a historically low voter turnout in recent elections.
Volunteer Activists’ comprehensive report explores seven potential future scenarios for Iran up to 2030. These scenarios range from maintaining the status quo to undergoing significant governmental reforms, transitioning to democracy, or descending into authoritarianism or state collapse. Each scenario is analyzed for its likelihood and potential impact on Iran’s socio-political landscape.
The report underscores the importance of the international community’s role in supporting Iran’s civil society and democratic movements. By understanding these possible trajectories, international donors and other stakeholders can better formulate strategies to assist Iran in achieving a more democratic and stable future.